Saffron. Erratic weather and diminishing autumn rainfall is affecting saffron like never before. Grown in Kashmir since 500 AD, production of saffron in the region has fallen from 16 metric tonnes in 1997 to 5 metric tonnes in 2020. In Iran, the other significant saffron growing country, production in the Khorasan region fell from 400 tonnes in 2022 to around 180 tonnes in 2023.
Reason: climate change.
Cardamom. The plant has been more susceptible to pests and diseases than ever before. The pods are taking longer to mature, increasing the gap period between harvests from 55 to 60 days, which has increased to 85 – 90 days in some regions like Idukki. The optimum mean temperature for cardamom is 18 – 23º C but continuous exposure to high temperatures, such as 32ºC, could lead to withering of leaves and young plants. The crisis is not limited to Idukki alone. These changes and higher pest attacks are seen in Dagana and Tsirang regions of Bhutan.
Reason: climate change.
Mango. Abnormal flowering, drop in production, many varieties lacking color and flavor – myriad such issues have plagued mango production in India over the last decade. Last year, extended monsoons and warm winters caused a 40% drop in alphonso mango production. This year, Nuzividu region in Andhra Pradesh experienced severe thunderstorms after mid- May, damaging 15% of crops, incurring losses to Baganapalli farmers for the third consecutive year.
Reason: climate change.
This year, we have seen issues in tea, coffee and cocoa production. The issues and the list go on. While the farmer communities are struggling and are concerned, the consumer, so far, is shielded partly by global supply chains that rarely pass on any impact beyond price fluctuation and partly by direct exposure to such conversations on climate effects on crops.
The impact of climate change is not uniform on regions or crops. So, it is probably not right to say produce becoming rarer would be the only outcome. For example, rising heat has been favorable for poppy cultivation, making them more potent. Given that the global poppy seeds market is relatively small, would greater produce mean markets that were previously not used to the commodity see more of it and would eventually be adopted by new cuisines? But it could also mean that farmers who dealt in a high value crop would all of a sudden see a fall in prices.
We have seen something similar happen when it comes to fish consumption. West coast of Canada is seeing an influx of squid and sardine while salmon is exiting. Changes in global ocean temperatures have resulted in the rise of invasive species that are being worked into local cuisines in innovative ways. Saveur, the food magazine, published a piece titled, Is Invasive Species Dining The Next Frontier?
Now imagine recipes that look like this –
Here is how to make a delicious qorma without saffron.
No elaichi, no problem. Here are 5 amazing recipes that dont use cardamom.
This could very well be the sign of recipe writing to come. It is estimated that the productivity of most cereals would significantly decrease due to increase in atmospheric temperature and CO2, and the decrease in water availability. Yields of major food crops will be reduced by 3-7% for one degree increase in temperature. At the current rate, there will be a projected loss of 10-40% in crop production by 2100.
Cuisines, recipes and even food writing will be forced to adapt to the climate induced changes; what we consider wholesome or desirable, or even aspirational food, will change as the planet becomes hotter and climate patterns more unpredictable.
The impact of climate change on crops is not uniform, nor is it on consumers. A common spice may become more premium or even a luxury. In another fifty years, millets may become the preferred grains because they would be the only ones afforded by a large section of people. While a lot of these scenarios seem like scary projections, the wheels have started turning. Lab grown foods, alternate proteins, hydroponically grown vegetables – are all reactions to and in readiness for extreme climate conditions. The point to ponder, however, is that all industrially produced food would add to the carbon footprint; and every loss of species will trigger a change in the ecology and nutrient cycle that we still haven’t fully comprehended.